When asked pre-lottery by friends if I would run Hardrock should my name be drawn, I was pretty emphatic in stating that I would absolutely turn down the spot. The reasoning behind this fairly logical answer was not one of charity for others who might be better prepared for the immense undertaking, but simply because running such a beast two weeks after (hopefully) running full bore at Western States sounded incredibly painful and potentially dangerous, not to mention stupid in terms of UTMB preparation.

Then my name was drawn. And all bets were off.

I quickly rationalized that this would be a great chance to test my mettle in a way I have yet to test it. And besides, the chances of being drawn in the lottery are so slim that I may never get another chance at it. Then I saw the list of starters and felt further compelled to send a check for $250 to race director Dale Garland.

The event has never really been about the racing, but more about the experience. However, as regular readers of this blog might have gathered by now, I like to race (regardless of my chances of winning), and clearly the 2011 event has the potential to be one of the more competitive ones in the race’s history.

A taste of the competition:

Karl Meltzer (5-time winner)
Scott Jurek (‘07 winner, 7-time WS winner, US 24-hour record holder, and on and on)
Jared Campbell (defending champ)
Duncan Callahan (2-time Leadville winner)
Diana Finkel (3-time winner, 2nd overall last year)
Darcy Africa (2nd last year (4th overall) and winner of multiple 100 mile mountain races)
Nathan Yanko
Pete Stevenson
John Anderson
Matt Hart
Dakota Jones
Kevin Shilling
Glenn Mackie
Christian Johnson
Garrett Graubins
Nick Coury
Ryan Cooper
Jeff Browning (31st on the wait list - would be a great addition to the start list)

Up until about a week ago, I really hadn’t given the race much thought. Western States is absolutely my goal race for the summer -- no ifs, ands, or buts about it -- but now that I’ve started getting up into the mountains a bit more in my training, and the prospect of some high-alpine running starts to open up with the changing of the seasons, my mind begins to wander towards July and the San Juans.

I paced Nick Pedatella over the last 30 miles of the course last year just two weeks after racing Western States and, quite frankly, it was a slog. I got altitude headaches, we got lost for an extended period of time in the middle of the night, and Nick fell in an ice-cold stream at 4 in the morning and was borderline hypothermic for hours. I was ready to hand over the pacing baton to Ryan at mile 90 but he didn’t show, so I had to slog up the last huge climb (they’re all huge) to 13,000 feet over Little Giant without expressing my desire to sit down and stop (which is not good pacing etiquette).

Not so little, but definitely a giant.

My immediate post-pace thoughts are documented here, and as you might deduce from the prose and video commentary, I was far from enthusiastic about the event at the time of writing. But time has a way of romancing the pain and frustration. And I’m now fully excited at the prospect of covering the 100.5 miles, 34,000 feet of climbing, and 13 major passes of the Hardrock course…I think.

Of course I have goals for the summer, who doesn’t? As far as the WS/Hardrock double is concerned, there is but one goal (well there are multiple goals, but for fear of being ridiculed I’ll just mention the following): beat AJW’s impressive double from 2009, which I assume is a record:

Western States: 18:46:51
Hardrock: 28:09:09
Combined: 46:56:00

And then there’s UTMB, but I’m putting those thoughts off until July 9.

This summer promises to be epic.

Headed out to Sacramento, CA tomorrow to go run on a bike path for 30 miles. This will essentially be my first ultra of the year. I know that 50ks are considered ultras, but I really don't think the 50k distance is long enough to truly dig yourself a hole or a trench the way you can in a 50 miler or a 100 miler. And the potential for hole digging looks particularly good at American River.

Just about any advice I have received on running American River begins with the words 'don't go out too fast.' Given this race is in its 32nd year, I'll assume that there is enough combined wisdom to believe those words are probably sage advice. It looks like the front of the pack covered the bike path miles in 6:18-6:25 pace last year, which is 2:45 to 2:50 marathon pace. I think I would be more comfortable in the 6:30 range, but this is a race so we'll see.

Once off the bike path for good, at about mile 30, the race proper begins. For some, the last 20 miles will be about hanging on, but for others it will be about reeling in overzealous marathoners. While the prospect of running hard on the bike path for so many miles is unappealing, to say the least, I am intrigued by the tactical aspect of this race. For the most part in 50 milers, you tend to slot into a rhythm, an effort and try not to die too badly over the last 5 to ten miles. Nearly always, the terrain involves big climbs and big descents but a fairly consistent effort level. At American River, you essentially have a road race followed by a rolling trail race, requiring two different skill sets and two different effort levels.

I feel like I am in decent road shape (for me), so hope to be in contact as we hit the trail, but really have no idea how those last 20 miles are going to play out. I haven't run beyond 35 miles since Wasatch last year, and I have certainly never run 20 miles hard after laying down a 2:45 marathon, so I guess anything could happen - from the sublime to the disastrous. Six hours is a definite time goal, but this one for me is more about the race, so whatever that dictates pace-wise (within reason) is where I'll likely be.

Competition looks good, with some familiar names mixed in with less familiar names. As is typically the case in ultras, a few guys won't be making it to the start line but of those that are fit, the front of the pack will probably look something like this: Jason Loutitt (low-2:20 marathon guy); Dave Mackey (who claims to be undertrained: you've been warned); the Sharminator (who has similar/slightly faster marathon legs than me and the ability to run 100 miles fast on the flats); Jacob Rydman (who is local and just starting to make his mark); Joe Uhan (who ran well at Chuckanut); Erik Skaden (a former winner); Ryan Burch (the 50 mile specialist); AJW (too fast/short for him?); Michael Buchannan (ran with Andy Henshaw in first on the bike path last year, then seemingly bonked hard over the last 20); Senior Jaime (who is secretly a road runner); Matt Hart (might be lost without a pair of skis and skins), Graham Cooper (former WS winner), and others I am sure. Ellie Greenwood and Kami Semick will be mopping up bonking male egos from mile 30 onwards, so watch your backs gentlemen.

See you in Sacramento!

Hmmm, this route looks to be about 50 kilometers long with enough climbing to trim up your holiday-inflated Chubby Cheeks (~8000').

Red = out
Green = back
Blue = short cuts

Short cut from Arthurs Rock = Marathon(ish) (~7,000')
Short cut down Mill Creek = 22-23 miles (~5,500')

Ummm, feel free to print and use for future reference:

Chubby Cheeks 50k

I couldn't resist getting out for a harder effort to the top of Horsetooth yesterday. It's only 2.5 miles (with ~ 1,800' of climb), and I was in the mood to run a little harder than usual, so I threw caution to the taper winds and pushed out what would probably be considered a lactate threshold effort. I was definitely careful to keep the run under control, never getting into that gunk-building zone, so was exceptionally happy to record a summit of 27 minutes, less than a minute off my PR.

This was a nice little confidence builder just days before I take on the Big Hill. Prior to this run, I was in a pretty negative frame of mind with regards to Pikes, thinking I would be lucky to summit in the 2:35 I managed last year, and almost certain that a sub-4-hour run was not going to happen. With the return to mental positivity, I am once again confident that with a good run I can dip under 4:00.

What will it take? An absolute minimum of 2:35 on the up, which would leave 1:24:59 for the down - a number that may or may not be realistic. Having never raced the down, I just don't know. Given that Mock has gone down in 1:28 (a time that included two stops for shoe adjustments), I have to think 1:25 is doable, but I doubt there's much more room to be made on the down. However, I honestly believe that with a stronger run above treeline than last year I can run a 2:30 ascent or better. If I hit that number on the climb and fail to break 4 hours I think I'll come away disappointed.

So anyway, I have a couple of races within the race going on as well. While I have already taken the five-race series against Senor Burch this year, there is still some talk (on Burch's part) of lifetime cumulative head-to head times, a number he apparently owns due primarily to a very poor run I had a couple of years ago at the Blue Sky Marathon. I'm not exactly sure what the cumulative time differential is, but I think it's in the 5-10 minute range. If I do finish ahead of Ryan, I doubt it will erase my deficit, but it will at least be another little dent in the right direction.

The second match-up is the direct head-to-head with Top American/Last Ass. This one is a classic match-up between someone with significantly more road speed (2:29 vs 2:43) and someone who thinks he has significantly more trail and mountain chops than his adversary. Quite frankly, I think I'll have the race sewn up somewhere between A-frame and the summit, but I know Justin will be charging the down once the air gets a little thicker and the trail a little less technical - so there'll be no give up from either of us, a fact that will hopefully spur us both to our shared sub-four-hour goal.


Any which way it shakes out, this weekend promises to be a lot of fun. I'll be heading down with Dana and Alistair on Friday night - staying chez PitBrownie - and then taking the family up to the peak on Saturday morning to watch the Ascent play out, before hanging out in Manitou for the rest of the day to soak up some atmosphere and hopefully eat some good food.

And as a last note, good luck to everyone else running this weekend at Pikes, Leadville or in the Transrockies race, on what is - without a doubt - the biggest trail racing weekend on the Colorado calendar. And the amazing thing about this weekend of racing is that all three events were sold out weeks or months ago. August is simply a great month to be running high mountain trails in this gorgeous state we are lucky enough to call home.

Mon - 5 miles (1,000'). Horsetooth/Falls.

Tues - 6 miles (1,200'). Reservoir Ridge with FCTR.

Weds - 8.5 miles (2,200'). Horsetooth/Audra.

Thurs - 5 miles (1,000'). Horsetooth/Falls.

Fri/Sat - 30 miles (10,000'). Pace Hardrock.

Sun - Off.

Total: 54.5 (15,400').

Hardrock seemed to take a little more out of me than planned, or I should probably say that I was a little less recovered from Western States than I thought, especially on the downs, and now the hip flexors seem a little tight.

Anyway, onwards to Pikes from here. First test comes this Sunday at the Barr Trail race which goes half way up the mountain to Barr Camp and then straight back down for close to 12.5 miles and 3,600' of climbing. I'm not expecting anything too earth shattering, but I am of course hoping to get a good workout in. This is probably the most competitive short-course mountain race in Colorado, which makes it one of the most competitive short-course races in the country, so a top 10 finish will definitely be a result. According to Justin's RunColo preview, I will not be a factor, but I'm imagining that at least a couple of the guys he's picked for top 10 spots won't get to the start line, and even if they all do I still think I'll be in the mix for the 10 spot. We'll see.

I pushed a few of the climbs this week in training, and generally felt pretty decent. I'll definitely need time to warm up at Barr Trail, so plan to go out easy and work up to race pace and then chew up the down.

Towers Road Handicap TT this Thursday at 6:00pm from the Horsetooth lower lot (Soderberg) if any out-of-towners (or in-towners for that matter) feel like putting in an appearance. Details here.

Just as I finally feel like I've caught up with work, family, and life in general post-Western States, the train is getting ready to pull back out of the station.

I'm heading out to Gunnison after work on Thursday to stay with my good buddy Ryan Burch, and then Friday morning we'll be heading down to Telluride to access the first crew point (28 miles) on the grueling Hardrock 100 course, which kicks off at 6:00am Friday.

The plan is to catch the early action in Telluride and help out our runner Nick Pedatella with anything he might need, and then head over to Ouray (mile 42) where Ryan will assume pacing duties for the next 28 miles. I'll then head over to Grouse Gulch aid station (50 something miles) to check in on the action there, before driving out to the Sherman aid station (70 miles) from where I'll be pacing Nick into the finish through the night. Gonna be a long day/night.

I'm not really into the Twitter thing, i.e. I don't have an account, but I'll be taking some pics and video from the early aid stations, so be sure to check the blog Saturday (early and late afternoon) for some (almost) live footage, which I should be uploading from Telluride and Ouray once we've helped Nick through those aid stations.

So who's gonna' win? Tough to call really. Meltzer seems to like his chances despite the various injuries he's currently carrying, but I don't see it myself. I'm picking teammate Scott Jaime for the win with a time in the 26-hour range. I'm also pulling for Nick P of course, and hoping that Ryan and I can help pull him through to a podium finish. Last year's runner up Troy Howard is also running, but he had a rough time at Western States two weeks ago, and I just don't see how you come back from that within two weeks to be competitive at Hardrock. I prefer John Anderson for the podium this year. He's a tough Boulder-based mountain runner and I'm sure he'll be ready. I'm also pulling for buddies Brooks Williams and PittBrownie to have great races too.

Top five men: Scott Jaime, Karl Meltzer, Nick Pedatella, John Anderson, Jared Campbell.

In the women's race, I like the head-to-head between Darcy Africa and last year's winner (and course record holder) Diana Finkel. Both are great endurance mountain runners, but I'm definitely pulling for teammate Darcy. Former winner, Betsy Nye should round out the top three.

Stay tuned Saturday afternoon for some footage and commentary from the early stages of the race.

So we pulled into town Saturday afternoon in time for a short run and a bit of a scout of the higher reaches in and around Squaw Valley. I jogged out to the Five Lakes trailhead, and then climbed about 1,000 feet up to the snow line. The running was 100% clear up to about 7,200' after which the trail disappeared under a heavy blanket of snow, which was still a good two feet deep in places.

Not sure if these conditions are typical for this time of year in the High Sierras, but I was just forwarded these pictures from the Western States course, and I have to say, that looks like a lot of snow. I knew there was a reason I chose to participate in the Twin Mountain Trudge again this year!

All photos: JMJScott.

Of course, there will be significant melt through the next four and a half weeks, but it certainly looks like we'll be in for a good amount of trudge action.

Just a few thoughts as I get ready for a huge day in the mountains on Saturday. And I do mean huge.

I knew when I signed up for Jemez that it was the kind of course I might enjoy: a ton of climbing (12,000'+ to be (almost) exact), wilderness, views, cross-country fun, and a highly competent race committee. I hear the food is good too.

After taking the time this week to explore the details a little further, I have actually come away a little intimidated by it all. Not only is a lot of the running taking place above 9,000', but there are also three trips above 10,000', which is an altitude I haven't run at since last year. While running at (relative) altitude is not really an issue for me, it is my first run of the year at sustained altitude, so you never know. More of a factor, however, will be the descents.

The Jemez course is known for its big climbs and crazy-steep descents. I welcome both, but am a little fearful, I guess, of getting carried away on the descents. That said, the course offers the perfect opportunity to assess how my downhill legs are progressing with regards to sustaining a solid effort late in the game at Western States. At Jemez, the last nine-mile section of the course is essentially a 3,000' drop, and this comes in addition to what have been described to me as insane descents earlier in the race where one essentially jumps off mountains on to scree slopes and hopes for the best.

Sustained and prolonged downhill running (and heat) still remain something of an x-factor for me in my preparations for States, so hopefully this weekend will offer up some clues as to what, if anything, I need to tweak in the five weeks before June 26. We're currently looking at a high of 78 for Los Alamos on Saturday, which means I get hills and heat ... perfect.

So, yes, Jemez is most certainly a training run. I've said all along that the singular goal for the first half of the running year is Western States, which has meant compromising other races that I might otherwise have tapered for. With that said, however, I have been feeling fairly rested this week and think that I might be able to put forth a competitive effort on Saturday. There is some good - and evenly matched - competition which will keep the effort honest, and while Senor Karl has suggested that Kyle Skaggs' course record (8:08) is not in jeopardy, I think it is fair to assume that Karl's ranking as the second fastest dude over the course (8:58) is in danger. Kyle's course record is so much faster than times posted by others that I have to assume that it would take a highly motivated run from a very talented mountain runner to beat it. However, I am betting that the winning time will be somewhere in the mid-eights (versus 9:14 last year).

What else? I took my running streak into triple digits on Monday. That's right, 100 days and 150 runs without missing a day. I plan to end the streak with my run in California next month, as I have learned that while good for motivation and getting out the door, running streaks are - on balance - poor training tools. They coerce you into running when you know you should be resting and that's a dangerous game, especially when nursing aches, pains and injuries.

Umm, if you fancy a crack at a Towers PR, or just a run up Towers, and read this in time, then we'll be at the Soderberg trailhead at 6:00 tonight. Hope to see you there. Oh, and happy birthday to me - I just got even older.

The Fruita weekend pretty much marks the beginning of the Colorado ultra season. I believe the 50-miler is the first ultra on the Colorado running calendar (don't quote me on that), which in concert with the fact that it's very well managed for a reasonable price and held in a jaw-droppingly beautiful location, makes it a race that I am thoroughly looking forward to.

In 2007, I had signed up for the 50 miler, but after getting lost for a good half an hour, just a mile from the turnaround, I decided to call it quits at 25 miles in a somewhat pedestrian 4 and a half hours. I skipped the 2008 rendition in favor of the Horsetooth Half Marathon here in Fort Collins (another great race), and then came back in '09 looking for a spot of redemption. While I ran a strong race last year, with the exception of a painful last few miles, I know I've got a better time in me on this course. Hopefully I can run a race that I'm happy with this year so I can finally get back to running the Fort-Collins-Running-Club's Horsetooth Half which has to be one of the best half marathons in the country (and one of the best after-parties: think lashings of free New Belgium beer and great live music).

Anyway, I posted a look at the Fruita competition for all four races over at RunColo.com if you feel like taking a gander. As you'll see, it's a pretty strong field this year in both the male and female 50-milers, with some interest also in the two 25-mile races.

As a side note, this will serve as the second installment in the five-race Burch vs. Clark 2010 showdown. And just as a reminder, Burch took a 40-second drubbing in the first leg in Salida last month.

As a second side note, good luck to GZ and JV who will be six or seven hundred miles downriver on Saturday taking on the Grand Canyon double crossing, aka the rim to rim to rim (R2R2R).

And then a third side note wishing Brandon, Brownie and Mike in Austin all the best in their sub-3-hour quests at Boston on Monday. My money as far as finishing times are concerned is on Mike, Brownie, then Brandon, although I'm confident they'll all duck under the 3-hour bar.

So the goal is to secure a spot at Western States in June by finishing top two at Bandera, which has been designated a qualifying race and Montrail Ultra Cup (MUC) event. Not surprisingly then, the field looks a little more competitive this year than it has in years past.

The race director, Joe Prusaitis, appears to be fully on top of things down in Hill Country Texas and offers a website jammed full of easily accessible and relevant information on the race, the area and all the happenings surrounding the weekend. In addition to the 100k race, there will be 50k and 25k races being held in the Hill Country State Natural Area on Saturday. 50k runners are eligible for MUC points but no WS spots.

Joe has been staying on top of the entrant list with regular updates, so I figured I'd offer a quick pre-race primer on the guys I think will be in the hunt in the 100km event.

While the field doesn't appear to be particularly deep, there are definitely some talented guys who are going to make a serious race of the top five or six spots, and I'm pretty sure that Matt Harrington's 2004 course record (9:25) will go down. If I were a bookie, there would be two guys I'd pick as favorites based on their form at big races across the years.

Probably the most proven guy is Zach Miller who has finished second at the JFK 50 twice, finishing in the low six-hour range. In addition, he ran sixth at Western States last year in an impressive 17:34 and second at the USATF 100k Trail Championship (and WS100 qualifier) in Oregon, coming in 29 minutes behind Erik Skaggs. There'll be no WS-qualification pressure on Zach, so I assume he's heading down to Texas to rack some points for the Ultra Cup.

Chikara Omine has been tearing up the Northern California trail running scene for a few years now, winning numerous events - typically against weaker fields - and finishing well in bigger events. He was third at the American River 50 mile last year (ahead of Tim Parr and a few seconds behind Dave Mackey), and ran an impressive eighth at the North Face Endurance Run a couple of months ago in San Francisco, finishing five minutes ahead of Mackey in 7:22, but 50 minutes off Steidl's blistering course record pace. He was among the favorites going into Western States last year, but I believe he ended up dropping.

I would probably insert myself as the next guy down the list, followed by Colorado Springs resident Dan Vega, who ran second at Leadville the year Matt Carpenter destroyed the course record.

Jamie Cleveland is a former Canadian National Ironman champ and has previously won Ironman Florida. He won the Bandera 50k last year, but seems somewhat unproven over longer distances - a definite wild card.

Glenn Mackie is back defending his title, but I think he'll have to improve on his winning time of 9:53 from last year if he's gonna get the job done this weekend.

I've definitely got my work cut out for a top two, but the nature of the course should slow things down a bit. The short, yet sharp ups and downs, combined with the technical nature of the track will make it more of a strength runner's course than a speedster's, which should play in my favor, and while I don't much enjoy running loose rocky trail, I tend to do well on it.

Sixty-two miles is a long way to run, and typically in these longer races there tend to be some blow-ups among the faster runners, so while I'm not going in as a favorite for the top two spots, it is well within the realms of possibility. I'm fit, confident and ready to race.

Thanks to Brownie for the heads up on the Hardrock registration, which is now online. Last year, the chances of getting in through the complex Hardrock lottery for folks like me who have just one entry in the hat was 18%. I expect the odds to be as bad or worse for 2010. Drawing for Hardrock is early February.

Speaking of terrible lottery odds, the final tally of entrants for the Western States lottery is 1,690. Total slots available: 400, with 125 places offered to various runners who qualify to run the event without having to go through the lottery. Assuming 100 take up that offer, that leaves a total of 300 spots available in the lottery, which by my elementary statistics calculations equals a 17% chance of getting in. I'm sure that if I had advanced statistics skills, I could then go on to offer a percentage chance that I will be drawn in one, both or neither of the lotteries, but I don't so I won't. Suffice to say, the odds are against. Drawing for WS100 is 23 days hence.

And on to the third lottery (!). This year, the Miwok 100k race committee has instituted a lottery for their event, so if you want to get in on that race, the entry period opens up Friday and closes two weeks later, with results being posted Dec. 1.

Phew! Kind of frustrating to have to wait on all these lotteries to get an understanding of how my 2010 season will shape up, but that's the way it is, so best to just roll with it and keep running. If I were a gambling man (!), I guess I'd be betting on the old pulse-and-a-check standby, Leadville, to be my 100-mile event for 2010. We'll see.

The Fort Collins Running Club (FCRC) race series, known commonly as the Tortoise and Hare (T&H), will begin with a 3.8 mile trail race on October 4. The series has been modified from its familiar five-race format to include a total of seven races over one series, with a racer's five best results counting towards his or her cumulative series total.

As noted in a previous post, this series has to be one of the best running deals in the state. If you are a member of the club ($20 individual, $30 family) the races are free - well actually we pay you, because the club buys breakfast from the Rocky Mountain Bagel Works (sponsor of the FireKracker 5k) after the race. In addition, the top five finishers over the series receive checks to one of the two local running stores in town to the tune of $85, $50, $30, $20, $15 (in addition to the 15% discount that all club members enjoy at Runners Roost or Foot of the Rockies). Better yet, the T&H is a handicapped series, meaning everyone has an equal shot at scooping the loot, regardless of age, sex or ability.

The focus of this series, and FCRC more broadly, is participation, but it is always nice to add an extra element of competition and a shot at a free pair of shoes. As an added bonus to an already mind-blowing deal, each and every race will be wheel measured (with the exception of the trail race, which is GPS measured), ensuring an accurate course. We have designed the series in such a way that distances build towards the Club's Horsetooth Half Marathon, with the longest run - 10 miles - coming just two weeks before Fort Collins' biggest, best and most scenic 13.1 miler.

I've been RD'ing this series now for a couple of years, and finally talked the board into including a trail race in the series. With weather and other concerns in mind, we have made the 3.8-mile trail trip around Pineridge Reservoir the first race in the series.

This is a great opportunity for those looking to explore the world of trail racing. The distance is manageable, the footing varied (crushed gravel and singletrack), and there are a sprinkling of rolling hills to keep you honest. It's also a great race for more experienced trail runners looking to set an inaugural course record (and FKT) for others to take a stab at in future years.

The rest of the series looks like this:

Oct 4 Pineridge 3.8 miles (from Pineridge parking lot, not Maxwell)
Nov 1 Warren Park 5k
Dec 6 Edora Park 8k
Jan 3 Rolland Moore 4k
Feb 7 Lee Martinez 10k
Mar 7 Cottonwood Glen 12k
Apr 4 TBA 10 mile


Another (free) race I am excited to draw people's attention to is an out-of-state tour around Utah's beautiful Zion National Park. Pure Zion is an inaugural race being put on by the fine folks at Wilderness Running as a means of giving back to the running community and trail running more specifically. The guys at Wilderness Running operate out of St. George, Utah, and offer nothing ... nothing ... but trail running gear. Their expertise in the field is unsurpassed, and their pricing is as competitive as the more generic retailers of trail running gear (especially if you use the coupon code advertised on the right sidebar of this blog).


The run is set for November 7, and will include a 20-mile course and a 15-mile course. Like the T&H, the emphasis is on participation and an appreciation of the beautiful places we trail runners get to suffer in. This inaugural event is a test run for both Wilderness Running and the Park Service issuing their permit, so space is very limited - act fast. More details here: http://www.wildernessrunning.com/index.php?page=pure-zion-2009.


One last race note: The Fort Collins Trail Runners' Blue Sky Marathon (half, 'thon, 50k) is 100 percent sold out, but there is a bib exchange for those hoping to get in. Contact the race committee if you want to run, and they'll do their best to hook you up with someone who has an entry but can't make the race.

The colors are starting to turn. Get out there and enjoy!

I won't be running myself, but I will be in America's highest incorporated town this weekend with the family following the action in the early going before pacing Harry Harcrow to a sub-19 hour finish through the last 25 miles. Sub 25-hour runners get the big dinner plate belt buckle, but the real challenge is the 20-hour mark. Here's a quick look at a few of the names that could, and maybe should, be getting back into Leadville before midnight.

The Contenders

I'll start with the front of the field and the headline match-up: Tim Parr vs. Anton Krupicka. There is absolutely no doubt that Parr is fit and ready, having just won the US Mountain Running qualifier at Cheyenne Canon a few weeks back, in addition to destroying the field just four days ago at the Pikes Ascent in a blistering 2:12. He trains at high altitude, has surely been running high mileage, and will surprise a few people who maybe haven't heard of him before and think this race is all about Tony. Which brings me to Krupicka, two time winner and second fastest ever over the course. Not only has Tony won the race twice, but he also lives and trains through the summer months in Leadville. He set a very impressive course record at the USATF 50 mile championship a few weeks back, and appears to be in great shape. If I were a bookmaker, I'd have to make Tony the favorite, but I certainly wouldn't be offering any better than 2-1 on Tim.

My pick? I'm gonna stick my neck out and say that Parr wins this duel, but not necessarily the race.

The other contender for the win? Dennis Flanagan. He came from nowhere to win the Leadville Marathon, setting a seven-minute course record in the process and beating Tony by a convincing eight minutes. For whatever reason he didn't show up for the Leadville 50, so there might be some injury doubts, in addition to doubts that he can go the distance (having never run a 100 miler before - as far as I know), but he certainly knows how to run trail and how to run trail fast. Definitely a wild card.

The Chase Pack

Nobody is giving much love to the defending champ, Duncan Callahan, in discussing this year's race, which is a mistake. He may not have the ability to run 16 hours, but he'll be in the vicinity should the lead runners crumble and whither under too hot of a pace. Duncan had a solid run for third at the Leadville Marathon, in addition to a few other races through the season, but his focus appears to be 100% centered on Leadville. He trains hard, has a strong competitive spirit and will be ready. Look for him to beat his winning time of 18:02 from last year.

Zeke Tiernan was third last year in a strong 18:37. I have no idea how his season is going, but based on last year's finish, he has to be considered for a top five this year.

Andy Jones Wilkins has been running well this year, as he seems to do most years in the 100-mile category. He won Rocky Raccoon, placed 10th at States, and then followed that up a couple weeks later with a very strong run at Hardrock. You can count on Andy to sweep up any carnage that comes his way through the last 25 miles. Top five.

Harry Harcrow is another steady 100 miler who knows how to get it done. He's shooting for a PR, so anything under 19:30. I'll be pacing him through the last 25 and will be wielding the whip. I hope to get him home in under 19 hours, but first he's got to get to Fish Hatchery in one piece and on pace.

Nick Pedatella has been logging some big miles in training and says he's hoping to go under 20 hours. He is more than capable of going under 20. Nick, you should be looking at the 19-hour number!

Ryan Burch. Well, all I can say about Ryan and Leadville is that he proposed to Megan, his wife, on top of Sugarloaf last year on the way back to Leadville, all while blowing up big time. This followed a similar disappointment the year before (the blowing up part). That said, he keeps pushing out impressive 50-mile performances, including wins at Leadville and Jemez Mountain this year alone. He's pretty steadfast in his desire to 'get it done' in under 25 hours, all while not suffering too much, regardless of how much I've been prodding him to run competitively. If he can get to the turn and back over Hope in good shape, he might mount a late charge, but don't look for him to be running too hard; he just wants the monkey off his back.

Charles Corfield has had a couple of strong finishes at Leadville. Look for him to run under 20 and challenge for a top five.

Jeff Beuche has gone under 20 hours before and finished top three in '06. No idea what kind of shape he is in this year, but should run strong.

Glenn Steckler has had some good 50-mile finishes this year, including a fourth at Fruita and fifth at Collegiate Peaks. He ran Leadville in the 22-hour range last year. Has the potential to go faster.

Jason Koop has run Leadville in the 22-hour range. Could be there again for a top ten.

Other names I recognize that could run well

Todd Ganglehoff
Garrett Graubins
Scott Klopfenstein
Ryan Cooper
Bryon Powell

Shout outs

Kirk Apt is running his 15th (or something like that) Leadville this year. He won way back when in a record-slow winning time. The trails were rivers that year, apparently.

Jonathan Zeif is a friend, local trail runner and member of the Fort Collins Running Club looking for the big 1,000 mile belt buckle this year. No doubt in my mind that he will get it done, it's just a question of how fast he will go.

Doug Nash is another friend and member of the Fort Collins Running Club. He's had two good finishes at Leadville and is dogged enough to pull off a third, despite a sketchy training build-up.

Corey Hanson is another local trail runner and occasional running partner. Normally I would put him higher in the rankings as he is a fast runner, but he's been dealing with some Achilles issues and is deep into his bid for Leadman'dom. With a finish on Saturday/Sunday he becomes a Leadman. No doubt in my mind that it will happen.

Jeff O'Reilly has had a nightmare season with injuries, and he dropped from last year's race. He hasn't run much, if at all, in the last two months, but I'm pulling for him to save his season by getting a finish at Leadville on Sunday.

Brooks Williams is Anton K's former room-mate, landlord, and all around nice guy. This will be his first 100, so I hope he's been getting some good advice from Anton.

Jon Teisher, aka PitBrownie, will be looking to set a PBR consumption record over the course of a 100 miler. I believe he put away three at Hardrock in addition to a shot of whiskey and a fat cigar. I know he can do better at Leadville. Oh, and he's looking for some redemption on his DNF from last year. Go get it Brownie!

Top ten prediction

Tim Parr
Anton Krupicka
Duncan Callahan
Zeke Tiernan
Dennis Flanagan
Andy Jones Wilkins
Harry Harcorw
Nick Pedatella
Jeff Beuche
Charles Corfield

Females

The women's race looks to be a three-filly affair with Darcy Africa, Jamie Donaldson and, to a lesser extent, Anita Fromm in with a shout. If I had to pick a winner, my money would be on Darcy, but Jamie is a very strong and experienced 100 miler. Coming off her repeat win at Badwater a few weeks back, she should give Darcy a run for her money. Anita is much slower than these two, but should be good for third.

I've been finding it hard to get excited for this Saturday's jaunt up Pikes Peak as the race wasn't really on my radar until a couple of weeks ago when I decided on a whim to put in for a competitive entry.

So when word came that I was in, I was able to find a bit of enthusiasm, but mostly because I'd be running against some of the best mountain runners in the country, not because this is something I really want to do. Having run up this monster at a decent clip a couple of weeks back, I have no misconceptions about what's ahead: 150 minutes+/- of extended hurt. After a tiring season, that kind of burn is hard to find motivation for. In addition, my training has been pretty lackluster since Bighorn - in and around 50-60 miles per week - which means the run is probably going to hurt that much more.

Don't get me wrong, I know full well that my competitive juices will ensure that I max out on the race, I'm just not looking forward to it that much. My mind is more preoccupied right now with enjoying some sweet high-altitude adventure runs than it is with hyperventilating for two miles and then burning my legs and lungs endlessly uphill for a further 11. I mean there are worse things that I could push myself to do on Pikes, like nudging a peanut up the mountain with my nose - as one guy apparently did 10 years ago (it took him three weeks) - but still it does seem like something of an exercise in futility.

Okay, general lack of motivation and poor-pitiful-me whinging aside; as far as race strategy goes, I have revised my original plan of caning the front half as hard as possible in favor of a more measured let-the-race-dictate-the-pace approach. My goals are twofold: finish top ten and run as close to 2:30 as possible. Considering my current level of fitness and the competition, I consider both of these to be stretch goals. So anyway, I'm going to try and go out with the top couple of packs, while remaining vigilant of my place in the race. Hopefully, I'll be able to run top 15 through the first half and then up the pace past Barr Camp to pick off the guys I need to pick off in order to get into the top ten. My top-end speed is probably weaker than most of the guys shooting for strong finishes, but mountains are great speed equalizers, and I'm confident that come the last few miles I'll be passing some of the early guns, especially as the air thins. So we'll see.

Research on the competition for the Ascent has been done by others in the Front-Range, trail-running blogosphere, so rather than duplicate their efforts, I'll just point anyone who is interested in such things to the previews of Justin Mock and George Zack (both of whom are looking good for top-ten finishes in the Marathon on Sunday).

Much to my surprise, I got an email from Matt Carpenter this afternoon stating that my bid for a competitive entry into this year's Pikes Peak Ascent has been accepted. I put in for it just a few days before the deadline last week, thinking that I'd had a decent first half of the season and may sneak in if there weren't too many others looking to get a spot via the competitive entry process.

Anyway, the upshot of the recent news is that I'm going to have to get serious - quickly - about getting into high-altitude, mountain-running shape. I have exactly 23 days to get ready. I've already arranged with friends from the Fort Collins Trail Runners to head down early Monday morning for a jaunt up the mountain. This will be my first time running the trail up Pikes.

Lucky for me, I have a two-mile, 1,600' climb essentially out my front door in Horsetooth Mountain Park. I'll be doing repeats up Horsetooth at least a couple times a week for the next two weeks. In addition, I'll be running Longs with Ryan B, per a phone call this morning, and looking to do Evans or Greys if I can find the time. Failing that, I'll try to sneak some time up in Rocky Mountain National Park to get up on Flattop. Not much else I can do really with just over three weeks to go. Fortunately, I have a good base to pull from and I think my legs are close to fully recovered from Bighorn.

Goal? Top ten.

The 2007 Leadville Marathon was just my second Colorado trail race after moving here from New York City in October 2006. At the time, I was pretty excited to get across the finish line of the high-altitude lung buster (topping out at 13,200') in 4:16, which was good for sixth on that day. It also turned out to be my last race before a debilitating back injury that had me on the sidelines from late July '07 to April '08 - almost nine months with nary a step run.

The fitness rebuilding process was a reasonably fast one, and by the fall of last year I found myself in decent racing shape, with perhaps my best run coming at Steamboat - my first ever 50 miler - where I finished 10 minutes back on Ryan Burch for third. Since Steamboat I've been able to build my fitness to new levels. After a really solid winter of base training and a spring of high miles focused on running ultra-distance events, I'm really excited to springboard to the second half of the year, with a focus on faster, shorter races.

So the trip to Leadville this weekend will bring me full circle to where I was two years ago. Not only was the marathon my last meaningful race before injury, but I was also just a month away from toeing the line for my first 100. While I did start the Leadville 100, my body was severely compromised and I ended up dropping at the Fish Hatchery, just 25 miles into the race. Those were the last miles I ran before the spring of '08. Now, with the 100-mile distance checked off the list just three weeks ago, and my body back in shape, I'm excited to see how much faster I can run this course than in '07. I am fully confident that I am fitter and faster than I was two years ago, but the question I want answered is by how much?

The Goals

1. Beat my 4:16 and sixth-place finish from '07
2. Break 4 hours
3. Finish top three
4. Break 3:45
5. Win
6. Set course record (Paul DeWitt, 3:39)

In setting goals, I like to reach. I'm a believer that if you set tough goals, you'll train and race harder to meet them. I'm reasonably confident I can take down the first three goals, although #3 is somewhat out of my hands depending, as it does, on who shows up, but 4-6 are definitely stretch goals. Hopefully I'll be able to meet one of them and come away from the race with a grade of at least 66 percent.

The Competition

The organizers of the Leadville biking and running races do a great job putting on their events - an excellent job in fact; however, they come up short on their use of modern technologies. An increasing number of races are putting entrant lists up before their events start, but Leadville continues to resist (or not bother). As such, it took a bit of internet sleuthing to figure out who may or may not be running.

Here's what I know: Duncan Callahan (Leadville 100 winner '08, Fruita 25 winner '09) has the event listed on his blog-based racing schedule; Bryan Dayton (Mount Evans Ascent winner '09, 4th '08) is looking to take down the course record, according to a news release announcing the Vasque trail running team; Corey Hanson (four-time winner of the Horsetooth Trail Half and local speedster) will be there kicking off his quest for Leadman'dom; Anton Krupicka is in town and in training for the Leadville 100 next month, making it not beyond the realms of possibility that he'll run. Other speedsters may or may not show up; however, the prize money on offer at the Barr Trail Mountain Race is the biggest pull for trail runners this weekend.

If all four of those guys show up at the start line on Saturday, which I hope they do, my hopes of finishing top three will quickly become a stretch goal, but certainly still within the realms of possibility, while my goal of winning would become a long shot. So we'll see.

Regardless of the competition, I'm excited to be injury free and in good shape right now. The biggest race for me out there on Saturday will be against the clock and my trail-running neophyte of a ghost from two years ago. Bring It On.

Ultra running is a great sport full of great characters and unbelievable feats of human endurance. If there were to be one weekend that summed up the extremes of an already extreme sport, this would have to be the one: Hardrock and Badwater within days of each other!

First up, beginning this Friday, is the famed Hardrock 100. For those familiar with the US ultra scene, this race needs little introduction, but for those less familiar with mountain 100s, suffice to say that the Hardrock loop across the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado boasts a total elevation gain of approximately 33,000 feet and an average elevation of 11,186 feet above sea level, rising to above 14,000' on Handies Peak. This thing is a lung-busting beast. Entrants have a total of 48 hours to get it done.

After the excitement of Kyle Skaggs' demolition of the old course record last year, the race for first looks to be a little less predictable this year. Here are some names I recognize as characters or contenders (in alphabetical order):

Kirk Apt - I stayed with Kirk and his wife Keith down in Fruita this spring for the Spring Desert Ultra. During the stay, I learned that Kirk will be toeing the line in Silverton for the 15th time on Friday, which means that he will have started every single Hardrock, failing to finish just once. He's won both Hardrock and Leadville through the course of his career, with, I think, close to 15 finishes at Leadville in addition to his 13 at Hardrock. Kirk is from the old skool and loves the mountains. He won't win, but he'll have a good time getting it done and finishing top ten.

Ryan Burch - Ryan is going into this race with an eye toward exorcising a few 100-mile demons and enjoying the San Juans, a mountain range he loves. He's proven at the 50-mile distance, having won a number of events in the region, has good leg speed (2:45 marathon) and great downhill eyes and feet. He's gonna go out conservative, but if things fall into place, he could be the sleeper who kicks it into high gear late in the race.

Jared Campbell - Don't know him personally, but I've certainly seen his name at or near the top of many a 100-mile and 50-mile race. He's gotten it done in Silverton before, coming fourth last year and in 2007. Has to be considered among the favorites.

Helen Cospolich - A mountain girl who loves to run and win long-distance races. I've run a couple of 50-mile races this year in which she has blown away the women's field, setting a course record at Collegiate Peaks 50 and winning handily at the Fruita 50. In addition, she won Leadville last year. She never looks to be running that fast, which is probably a pretty good qualification for Hardrock.

Ricky Dennesik - Like Campbell, Dennesik has course knowledge, finishing third last year. Based on that alone, I say he has to be considered a favorite.

Diana Finkel - Another veteran of the circuit and also last year's winner. The one to beat in the female division.

Roch Horton - Another guy from the old skool whose name has appeared on the results sheet of just about every 100-mile race in the country. A perennial top-ten finisher at Hardrock, look for him to keep that streak alive.

Scott Jaime - Again, don't know him personally, but from following his blog for the last few months, I'd have to say he goes in as a favorite. He was second last year, admittedly 6.5 hours back on Skaggs and only just dipping under 30 hours, but he appears to be much fitter this year and has trained with great specificity for this race. He'll be tough to beat if he fires on all cylinders.

Andy Jones Wilkins - AJW just got done tearing it up at Western States eight days ago, finishing in a strong 10th place (male div). Not the fastest out there, but this guy has run something like 25 100 milers, winning many, stats that have to make him a contender. He won't make the mistake of going out too fast and will likely catch runners late in the race. If he's recovered from States, I put him top three.

Karl Meltzer - Like AJW, Meltzer hardly needs an introduction. Suffice to say he's won this thing four times before and is a former course record holder. He ain't gonna get in under 24 hours, but based on current form, I'd say he has a shot at running the second fastest time ever recorded.

Betsy Nye - Another old skooler who knows how to get it done at Hardrock. Look for a top-three finish.

Paul Sweeney - Don't know much about Paul other than he won in '04.

Wait List

John Anderson and Bryan Goding both have a chance of running, based on their wait-list spots, if they show up in Silverton on Thursday. I think John is planning on it, and know that Bryan will be there. If John runs, he's definitely a contender for first. If Bryan gets in, he could easily finish top five.

Honorable Mention

Brownie - He's been talking smack for months. Let's see what he's got.

Badwater

Before getting out there and pacing and crewing for Alene Nitzky last year, I thought this race was for the crackpots only. I still do to a certain degree, but I have a lot more respect for the race and the mind-blowingly beautiful Death Valley after experiencing it first hand. I wound up pacing Alene for the last 45 miles (all hiking). She got in under 48 hours for the buckle finish.

The race starts at the lowest point in the lower 48 and continues 135 miles to Whitney Portal, which serves as the trailhead for an 11 mile hike to the highest point in the continental U.S. As originally conceived, the race finished at the peak of Mount Whitney. Due to permit restrictions, the official race has been cut short (!) at the 135-mile mark. The hardest of the hardcore keep running once they cross the official finish line and don't stop until they get to 14,500 feet above sea level, having started in the desert at 280 feet below sea level.

The more interesting women's race is Jamie Donaldson's to lose, and I'd say she has an outside shot at winning the whole thing. However, she'll be pushed hard by Pam Reed, who she beat out for first last year, and Monica Schultz. Pam has won this thing many times before (outright in '02 & '03) and Monica has two wins, so if things head south for Jamie, as they most certainly could in what looks like it may be a 130 degree year, either Pam or Monica could win it.

The men's race is Jorge Pacheco's to lose. He's the defending champ and doesn't look to have too much competition this year - from what I can tell. I guess I should probably mention Dean Karnazes as he is by far the best-known name in ultra running, and a former winner at Badwater, but he won't be winning anything this year. Could be good for second in the men's race, but will be beaten by Jamie as he was last year, if Jorge drops or crumbles.